Peninsula and Silicon Valley market data
We don't forecast markets. We help you read them. City by city — quarterly single-family data for the core luxury markets. Use it to price precisely as a seller or calibrate timing as a buyer.
Data scope: 2026-Q2 (Apr–Jun 2026 closings) · Pulse published 2026-07-10 | Sources: MK Bay Area Pulse 2026-Q2 · MK Bay Area Pulse 2026-Q1 · Redfin Data Center · Zillow Research · California Association of Realtors
Market Health Indicators — Pulse Q2 2026
Four signals at a glance
Key metrics from MK Bay Area Pulse Q2 2026 (MLSListings, 4,515 SFR closings, Apr–Jun 2026).
Sources: MK Bay Area Pulse 2026-Q2 (MLSListings SFR); Case-Shiller SF HPI (S&P CoreLogic) · Scope: Apr–Jun 2026 closings.
City Briefings
City by city, full data
Sorted by median sold price. All figures — median sold price, year-over-year change, DOM, sale-to-original ratio and all-cash share — come from Pulse Q2 2026 (MLSListings CSV), with year-over-year computed against the Q2 2025 baseline on the same methodology. → Full Pulse Q2 data across 56 cities
Cupertino sits outside the eight-city luxury panel but has a full data briefing — Pulse Q2 2026, 41 closings, median $3.35M, sale/orig 104.4%.
Cupertino market briefing (Apple HQ corridor) →Side-by-side comparison
The headline numbers: Atherton leads at a $10.50M median, with Portola Valley lowest at $3.68M. The most competitive market is Palo Alto at 105.5% of original list, a tenth of a point ahead of Los Altos. Five of the eight cleared in 9 days or fewer — Hillsborough fastest at 7 — while Woodside (20 days), Portola Valley (19), and Atherton (13) took longer (Pulse Q2 2026).
| City | Median Price | YoY | DOM | Sale/Orig | All-Cash Share | Segment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atherton✓ | $10.50M | ↓ 1.9% | 13d | 96.3% | 73.9% | America's most expensive ZIP |
| Hillsborough✓ | $6.50M | ↑ 23.8% | 7d | 103.0% | 47.6% | Old-money Peninsula enclave |
| Los Altos Hills✓ | $5.73M | ↑ 4.1% | 9d | 98.9% | 42.3% | Hilltop estates, equestrian heritage |
| Woodside✓ | $5.08M | ↓ 5.5% | 20d | 96.9% | 78.3% | Private hill estate enclave |
| Los Altos✓ | $4.86M | ↓ 0.3% | 8d | 105.4% | 32.5% | Top school district, low density |
| Palo Alto✓ | $4.11M | ↑ 10.8% | 9d | 105.5% | 40.0% | Tech executive and PAUSD school core |
| Menlo Park✓ | $3.87M | ↑ 14.6% | 9d | 102.6% | 36.1% | VC and Meta campus corridor |
| Portola Valley✓ | $3.68M | ↓ 18.7% | 19d | 96.5% | 27.8% | Rural estate enclave |
Reading the table: a sale-to-original ratio below 100% means the city's median home closed under its original asking price — buyer negotiating room, and the case in four of the eight this quarter. The cash-share dot marks three tiers: ≥60%, 40–60%, and under 40%; a higher share is the funding structure typical of the estate tier.
The pattern sharpened this quarter. Four of the eight closed below original list — Atherton 96.3%, Woodside 96.9%, Portola Valley 96.5%, Los Altos Hills 98.9% — while Palo Alto (105.5%) and Los Altos (105.4%) were bid up. Region-wide the same split shows in the price bands: $10M–$20M closed at 95.9% of original list and $20M+ at 90.2%, against 105.3% at $3M–$5M. Above $10M the buyer has room; at $3M–$5M they do not. The two require opposite strategies.
Median price — visual comparison
Market Segments — Three Market Types
Three price bands, three different logics
The Bay Area is not one market. Each price band runs on its own mechanics, and one verdict on "the market" will mislead you at both ends of the price range. Source: Pulse Q2 2026.
Pulse Q2 2026 cash share by band: $5M–$10M at 46.6%, $10M–$20M at 72.7%, $20M+ at 83.3% — every rung below where it sat a quarter ago as financed luxury deals returned. The tier now trades as a negotiating market: $10M–$20M closed at 95.9% of original list on a 24-day median DOM, $20M+ at 90.2% on 44 days. Portola Valley slipped out of the tier this quarter at a $3.68M median on 18 closings — a shift in what sold rather than a repricing of the enclave. Read DOM here with care: Atherton (23 Q2 closings), Woodside (23), Los Altos Hills (26), and Portola Valley (18) are thin markets, and MLS counts also miss privately transacted estates in these enclaves, so treat city-level medians here as directional.
The most contested band in Q2, and the one thing that did not change: $3M–$5M closed at 105.3% of original list — the highest of any band for a second straight quarter — on an 8-day median DOM, with 29.0% all-cash. At city level Palo Alto ran 105.5% and Los Altos 105.4%. Spring supply did not relieve the school-district middle; equity liquidity, school-zone demand, and cross-border buyers still compete for the same listings.
Pulse Q2 2026: 1,927 closings in this band, the largest of any tier, at a $1.95M median, a 12-day median DOM, 103.6% of original list, and 17.4% all-cash. This is a heavily rate-exposed segment — at 17.4% cash, mortgage cost sets bidding capacity directly, and its 12-day median DOM runs four days slower than the $3M–$5M band above it. Certainty of funds and clean terms decide the outcome.
Data: MK Bay Area Pulse Q2 2026 (MLSListings SFR, Apr–Jun 2026)
Actionable Reads — Sellers and Buyers
- →Pulse Q2: a 12-day region median DOM against 9 days in Q1, and 103.4% of original list against 105.1% — still a seller's market, but the margin for an over-ambitious asking price narrowed; absorption stays fast in the core, at 8 days between $3M and $10M
- →$3M–$5M sale-to-original 105.3% on an 8-day median DOM — the highest of any band for a second straight quarter, and spring supply did not relieve the school-district middle
- →Palo Alto 105.5% and Los Altos 105.4% are still being bid up, while four of the eight closed below original list — Atherton 96.3%, Woodside 96.9%, Portola Valley 96.5%, Los Altos Hills 98.9% — so a $5M+ asking price has to be set more conservatively than in Q1
- →Above $10M the calculus inverts: the median deal closed at 95.9% of original list on a 24-day DOM. But two of the six $20M+ closings cleared 10.0% and 17.8% above original list on 18- and 4-day DOM — the band is bimodal, and a single median does not describe it.
- →Above $10M, price to the market from day one and plan for a three-to-seven-week negotiation, anchored to the original list price rather than your target. In the core, front-load preparation into the week before launch.
- →Case-Shiller SF HPI Q2 2026: +2.47% year-over-year, up from +1.03% in Q1, and −0.12% quarter-over-quarter — the annual trend strengthened while the quarter flattened
- →Above $10M there is real room to negotiate — $10M–$20M closed at 95.9% of original list on a 24-day median DOM and $20M+ at 90.2% on 44 days, with Atherton, Woodside, Portola Valley, and Los Altos Hills all closing below original list. At $3M–$5M (105.3% on an 8-day DOM) there is none.
- →Q2 30-yr rate avg 6.41%, up 31 bps on the quarter and down 0.37 pp year-over-year — yet financed $10M+ deals rose from 2 in Q1 to 10 in Q2. Rising rates did not clear the competition out, and waiting for them to fall is not a reliable entry strategy.
- →Palo Alto median $4.11M, up 10.8% year-over-year, DOM 9 days (Pulse Q2) — core school-district demand did not soften
- →Have proof of funds and an offer strategy ready before you start touring: at $3M–$5M the first week decides it, above $10M the negotiation does.
Market Drivers — Four Variables
What shapes Bay Area market dynamics
Rate environment, supply structure, cross-border and cash capital, and tech employment — four variables with different logic at different price points, all sourced from Pulse Q2 2026 data.
Q2 broke the insulation story. $10M–$20M closed at 72.7% all-cash and $20M+ at 83.3%, both down from Q1, while financed $10M+ deals rose from 2 in Q1 to 10 in Q2 — against a 31 bps rise in the 30-year rate. Luxury buyers are choosing leverage again. The 10-year Treasury averaged 4.42% for the quarter. The $1.5M–$3M school-district band — 1,927 closings at 103.6% of original list on a 12-day median DOM, and only 17.4% cash — remains heavily rate-exposed, where mortgage cost sets bidding capacity directly.
Lock-in continues to suppress listings — owners holding low-rate mortgages have little incentive to move. Pulse Q2 recorded 4,515 SFR closings across 56 cities, up 4.5% year-over-year against Q2 2025's 4,320. The jump from Q1's 2,986 is the spring cycle; the year-over-year figure is the one that measures demand. Pace is now a band-level property, not a market-wide one: 8-day median DOM at $3M–$10M, 12 days at $1.5M–$3M, 24 days at $10M–$20M and 44 days above $20M. The 12-day region median reflects absorbed supply rather than available inventory.
All-cash share by price band (Pulse Q2 2026): under $1M at 15.9%, $1M–$1.5M at 15.8%, $1.5M–$3M at 17.4%, $3M–$5M at 29.0%, $5M–$10M at 46.6%, $10M–$20M at 72.7%, $20M+ at 83.3%. Cash concentration still climbs with price, but every rung came down from Q1 as financed luxury deals returned; $10M–$20M also eased from 77.8% in Q2 2025 to 72.7% (Pulse Q2 2025 / Q2 2026).
Hiring demand from AI and semiconductor employers underpins the core tech corridor. Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, and Mountain View combined for 295 Q2 closings at a $2.45M blended median, with individual medians running from Santa Clara's $1.90M to Mountain View's $2.91M and sale-to-original ratios of 106.8%, 104.3%, and 102.7% respectively (Pulse Q2 2026) — Sunnyvale is the tightest of the three, Mountain View the softest. These remain the most direct price signals for tech-sector employment.
MK Group data read: Pulse Q2 2026 (4,515 MLSListings SFR closings) shows a market that slowed and broadened — a 12-day median DOM against 9 days in Q1, and a 103.4% median sale-to-original ratio against 105.1%. It is still a seller's market through the core, where $3M–$5M held 105.3%, the highest of any band for a second straight quarter, on an 8-day median DOM. The top inverted: $10M–$20M closed at 95.9% of original list on a 24-day median DOM and $20M+ at 90.2% on 44 days, and four of the eight core cities closed below original list — the top returned to a negotiating range after Q1's list-tight quarter. At the same time $10M+ all-cash eased from 90.5% to 74.4% and financed deals at that level rose from 2 in Q1 to 10 in Q2. Volume at $10M+ still rose from 21 closings to 39 year-over-year (+86%) against 4.5% for the market as a whole — the K-shaped split is the through-line. Four variables — rates, supply recovery, cross-border and cash capital, and tech employment — determine the balance of power at each price point.
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Methodology
How these numbers are built
The eight-city table reports in-quarter closed transactions — every single-family sale with a close date inside the quarter (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30), deduplicated by MLS number. Median sold price, days on market, sale-to-original-list ratio, and all-cash share are computed from that set; year-over-year compares it to the same quarter of 2025 on identical methodology. All-cash is identified from recorded sale terms.
Primary source for this page's quarterly tables: MK Bay Area Pulse (MLSListings complete SFR transaction data), refreshed once per quarter with each Pulse release. Zillow Research ZHVI, Redfin Data Center, and Realtor.com Research feed the individual city briefing pages, which re-aggregate weekly. Medians are not mix-adjusted — compare across periods with that caveat in mind.
All figures are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. City-level data in high-priced, low-volume markets should be interpreted with caution — Atherton, Woodside, Los Altos Hills, and Portola Valley closed 23, 23, 26 and 18 sales this quarter, each under 30. Atherton's median moved from $15.71M in Q1 to $10.50M in Q2 on 23 closings against 10: a change in what sold, not a 33% price decline.
FAQ
Common questions
Q: Is the Bay Area currently a buyer's or seller's market?
As of Q2 2026 (source: MK Bay Area Pulse Q2 2026, 4,515 MLSListings SFR closings), most of the Bay Area is still a seller's market, but slower than Q1: a 12-day median days on market (DOM) against 9 in Q1, and a 103.4% median sale-to-original list price against 105.1%. The $1.5M–$3M core band ran 103.6% on a 12-day DOM; $3M–$5M is the tightest at 105.3% on 8 days. The exception is the top: $10M–$20M closed at 95.9% of original list on 24-day DOM, and $20M+ at 90.2% on 44 days.
Q: How does the luxury market differ from the mainstream Bay Area market?
The data still shows a structural split by price, but the top moved this quarter. All-cash buyer share by band (Pulse Q2 2026): $1M–$1.5M at 15.8%, $1.5M–$3M at 17.4%, $3M–$5M at 29.0%, $5M–$10M at 46.6%, $10M–$20M at 72.7%, $20M+ at 83.3%. Cash still dominates the top, but less absolutely than a quarter ago — $10M+ all-cash fell from 90.5% to 74.4% while financed deals at that level rose from 2 in Q1 to 10 in Q2. Luxury is re-engaging with credit, not insulated from it. Six $20M+ deals closed in Q2 2026 — five in Atherton, one in Palo Alto — at a 44-day median DOM and 90.2% of original list, though the band was bimodal, with two closing 10.0% and 17.8% above original list. Deals at this level are still driven largely by relationship networks and off-market channels.
Q: Among the 8 core luxury cities, which market is most competitive?
By sale-to-original ratio across the 8 core cities (Pulse Q2 2026): Palo Alto leads at 105.5%, then Los Altos 105.4%, Hillsborough 103.0%, Menlo Park 102.6%, Los Altos Hills 98.9%, Woodside 96.9%, Portola Valley 96.5%, Atherton 96.3%. The Q2 headline is that four of the eight — Los Altos Hills, Woodside, Portola Valley and Atherton — closed below original list, but the negotiating room does not rise monotonically with price: Portola Valley is the cheapest of the eight and still closed below original list, while Hillsborough, the second most expensive, ran 103.0% on a 7-day DOM, the fastest of the eight. By median sale price: Atherton $10.50M, Hillsborough $6.50M, Los Altos Hills $5.73M, Woodside $5.08M, Los Altos $4.86M, Palo Alto $4.11M, Menlo Park $3.87M, Portola Valley $3.68M.
Q: What is a normal days-on-market figure for Bay Area SFR?
Pulse Q2 2026 puts the region-wide median at 12 days. It varies sharply by band: 8 days between $3M and $10M, 12–14 days below $3M, and 24 days at $10M–$20M rising to 44 days above $20M. A DOM under 10 days combined with a sale-to-original ratio above 105% is still a reliable signal of live competition: in Q2 that pairing held in Los Altos (8 days / 105.4%) and Palo Alto (9 days / 105.5%), while Hillsborough was the fastest of the eight at 7 days on 103.0%. Thin ultra-luxury markets are the exception — Atherton (23 Q2 closings), Woodside (23), Los Altos Hills (26) and Portola Valley (18) are small enough that a single transaction moves the headline DOM, making it a poor stand-alone signal there.
Q: What does a sale-to-original-list ratio above 100% mean?
The home sold above its original asking price — a multiple-offer situation. Pulse Q2 2026 figures by band: under $1M at 102.1%, $1M–$1.5M at 103.0%, $1.5M–$3M at 103.6%, $3M–$5M at 105.3% (the highest of any band for a second straight quarter, on an 8-day median DOM), $5M–$10M at 104.0%. Above $10M the ratio drops below 100% — 95.9% at $10M–$20M on a 24-day median DOM, and 90.2% above $20M on 44 days. At the very top, the median deal now closes under original list, which is a negotiating window rather than a bidding contest.
Q: What is the difference between Peninsula and Silicon Valley pricing?
The Peninsula (San Mateo County — Menlo Park, San Mateo, Hillsborough, Atherton, Woodside) and Silicon Valley (Santa Clara County — Palo Alto, Los Altos, Cupertino, Sunnyvale) reflect different land scarcity, lot sizes and school-district premiums. Pulse Q2 2026 by county: San Mateo median $2.16M (up 5.4% year-over-year, 104.9% sale-to-original, 11-day median DOM, 27.3% all-cash), Santa Clara $2.01M (down 4.5% year-over-year, 102.1% sale-to-original, 10-day median DOM, 21.5% all-cash). San Mateo has been the higher-median county in five of the last six quarters, and the gap widened again this quarter — from $125K in Q1 2026 to $155K. Individual cities diverge further — San Mateo city ran 110.3% sale-to-original at a $2.26M median and Sunnyvale 106.8% at $2.73M — but those are city-level figures, not county-level. The two sub-markets compete for similar buyer profiles at different price points.
Q: Does Bay Area real estate follow seasonal patterns?
There is a consistent rhythm: spring (March–June) is the peak for both listings and closings, while the Thanksgiving-to-January window is the traditional slow season. That is why quarter-to-quarter volume comparisons mislead — Q2 2026's 4,515 closings against Q1's 2,986 is the spring cycle, not a market shift. The meaningful comparison is year-over-year: Q2 2026 ran 4.5% above Q2 2025. And the spring surge did not relieve the school-district middle: $3M–$5M still closed the quarter at 105.3% of original list on an 8-day median DOM.
Q: How much of the market is all-cash, and does it change with price?
Region-wide, 20.4% of Q2 2026 closings were all-cash. It is roughly flat below $1.5M and then climbs steeply: 15.9% below $1M, 15.8% at $1M–$1.5M, 17.4% at $1.5M–$3M, 29.0% at $3M–$5M, 46.6% at $5M–$10M, 72.7% at $10M–$20M and 83.3% above $20M. Among the eight core cities, Woodside led at 78.3% and Atherton at 73.9%, while Portola Valley ran 27.8%. Read cash share against the same price band rather than against the whole market: 30% cash at $2M is high, while 30% at $8M is low.
Q: Which cities make sense with a budget around $2M?
The $1.5M–$3M band is the highest-volume segment in the Bay Area — Pulse Q2 2026 recorded 1,927 closings in that range, the largest of any band, at a $1.95M median, 12-day median DOM and 103.6% sale-to-original. San Carlos (median $2.73M), Sunnyvale ($2.73M), and Fremont ($1.77M) are typical options. The trade-off between school district quality and commute distance is best evaluated through the individual city briefing pages and the buyer resources section.
Q: Why are so many Bay Area buyers paying all-cash?
Three converging sources: tech equity liquidity (RSU vesting and IPO proceeds), cross-border capital allocation, and the strategic choice to use cash as a competitive advantage in multiple-offer situations. All-cash share by price band (Pulse Q2 2026): under $1M at 15.9%, $3M–$5M at 29.0%, $5M–$10M at 46.6%, $10M–$20M at 72.7%, $20M+ at 83.3% — cash concentration climbs sharply with price above $1.5M. The top of the ladder eased this quarter, though: $10M+ all-cash fell from 90.5% in Q1 to 74.4%, while financed deals at that level rose from 2 in Q1 to 10 in Q2.
Q: How often is this page updated?
Two update rhythms: the eight-city comparison table and price-band snapshot are refreshed each quarter with the MK Bay Area Pulse release (latest: 2026-Q2, published 2026-07-10). The seven individual city briefing pages (Palo Alto, Atherton, Menlo Park, Hillsborough, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Cupertino) sync ZHVI home-price index, inventory, and DOM data from Zillow, Redfin, and Realtor.com on a weekly automated basis.
Data Sources
Primary source: MK Bay Area Pulse 2026-Q2 — built from MLSListings complete SFR transaction data, Apr–Jun 2026, covering 56 cities and 4,515 closings across 3 Bay Area counties. Published 2026-07-10. Cities marked ✓ carry Pulse-verified median price, DOM, sale-to-original ratio, and all-cash share — in Q2 that is all eight.
Supplementary sources: Redfin Data Center, Zillow Research, and the California Association of Realtors provide context for the individual city briefing pages. Every figure in the eight-city table on this page comes from Pulse Q2 2026 (MLSListings). All data is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Data scope: 2026-Q2 (Apr–Jun 2026 closings) · Pulse published 2026-07-10 | Authors: Kevin Mo (DRE# 02127623), Marie Wang (DRE# 02110980) | © Meridian Keystone Real Estate Group · Keller Williams
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