Peninsula and Silicon Valley market data
We don't forecast markets. We help you read them. Seven cities — monthly single-family data, city by city. Use it to price precisely as a seller or calibrate timing as a buyer.
Data as of March 2026 | Sources: Redfin Data Center · Zillow Research · Bay Area Market Reports · California Association of Realtors
Market Health Indicators
Four signals at a glance
A quick read on whether the market favors buyers or sellers right now.
Price Index — Nine Consecutive Quarters
Core Bay Area index up 25% since Q1 2024
Santa Clara + San Mateo composite price index, indexed to 2024 Q1 = 100.
City Briefings — Seven Markets
Seven cities, full data
Sorted by median sold price. Covers median, year-over-year change, DOM, sale-to-list ratio, and months of supply. Each city links to its full briefing.
Side-by-side comparison
| City | Median Price | YoY | DOM | Sale/List | Supply (mo.) | Segment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atherton | $7.16M | ↑ 2.0% | 48d | 97% | 3.5 | Ultra-luxury estate tier |
| Hillsborough | $4.76M | ↓ 4.7% | 21d | 99% | 2.8 | Old-money Peninsula enclave |
| Los Altos Hills | $4.60M | ↑ 3.2% | 30d | 98% | 3.1 | Low-density equestrian estates |
| Los Altos | $4.80M | ↑ 11.0% | 18d | 105% | 1.4 | Top school district, low density |
| Palo Alto | $3.80M | ↑ 5.4% | 22d | 103% | 1.6 | Tech executive and school district core |
| Menlo Park | $3.30M | ↑ 3.5% | 24d | 101% | 1.9 | VC and Meta campus proximity |
| Cupertino | $3.10M | ↑ 5.9% | 26d | 104% | 1.5 | Apple HQ and CUSD corridor |
Median price — visual comparison
Geography — Two Market Zones
Peninsula vs. Silicon Valley
The Bay Area is not one market. The county line between San Mateo and Santa Clara runs through meaningfully different pricing regimes.
Median SFR prices run roughly $800K above Santa Clara County. The premium reflects estate-grade lot sizes, historical old-money capital concentration in Atherton and Hillsborough, and a narrower supply pipeline. All-cash buyers account for a higher share here; rate sensitivity is lower. Off-market transactions are common above $6M.
Tech-employer proximity and top-tier school districts drive demand. Los Altos and Los Altos Hills carry Peninsula-comparable pricing with slightly higher inventory. Cupertino sits in the Apple HQ corridor — the CUSD school rating commands a consistent premium. Sale-to-list ratios in this zone are among the highest in the Bay Area: 104%–106%.
All-cash buyer share exceeds 60% at this price level. Rate moves have minimal effect. DOM statistics here are highly sensitive to single transactions — we recommend reading rolling 6-month data rather than monthly snapshots. Deals are relationship-brokered; pocket listings account for a significant portion of total volume.
Actionable Reads — Sellers and Buyers
- →DOM is tightening across all seven cities — buyer competition is intensifying
- →Inventory at 55% of 2019 levels — supply constraint is structural, not seasonal
- →Sale-to-list above 100% in most cities — the market is absorbing premium pricing
- →Recommendation: intensive preparation in the week before launch; week-one exposure determines final price
- →Price index up nine consecutive quarters — the cost of waiting compounds
- →Top school districts: 75%+ of listings receive offers in week one
- →Rate declines expected to bring more buyers in — competition intensifies before prices adjust
- →Recommendation: proof-of-funds and offer strategy ready before you start touring
2026 Outlook — Four Variables
What shapes the second half
Rate trajectory, inventory, cross-border capital, and the AI and tech employment cycle are the four variables worth tracking.
A move to the 5.5% range would lift purchasing power roughly 8%. The $5M+ estate tier is largely insulated — cash buyers dominate — but the $1.5M–$2.5M school-district band would see intensified competition.
The lock-in effect continues to suppress listings. Owners holding 3% mortgages have little incentive to move. Absent a macro shock — layoffs, relocation — a seller's market persists through Q4.
Gradual easing of outbound capital controls plus next-generation immigration demand are driving an uptick. Atherton, Hillsborough, and Palo Alto remain the primary target markets.
Rising valuations at OpenAI, Anthropic, and peers will translate to equity liquidity events in H2. Meta, Google, and Apple recruiting in the Bay Area has resumed steadily.
MK Group outlook: Core Bay Area pricing is likely to continue its measured upward trend through the second half of 2026. The seller window remains open — particularly for school-district properties and large-lot estates. Buyers who move before the anticipated rate drop will face less competition than those who wait for the confirmation.
Video Briefings
Our founders explain the market
Data is a starting point. Kevin and Marie break down what the numbers mean for your specific decision.
Meta裁员16000人，而这只是开始？2026硅谷裁员潮下，湾区房价会崩盘吗？|硅谷裁员|硅谷买房
Meta 大规模裁员对湾区房价的连锁影响与韧性评估。
上市倒计时！|OpenAI 上市将如何重定义硅谷房价？湾区买房|湾区豪宅|OpenAI
OpenAI IPO 财富释放对湾区核心区房价的预期重构。
硅谷豪宅越来越贵？2026硅谷豪宅市场深度解析｜斯坦福圈房产分析
2026 豪宅市场趋势，Stanford 周边深度分析。
湾区房产市场购买力断层已成定局？！刚需级、改善级、豪宅级资产该不该卖？
三大价格带购买力结构分析与持有策略。
在湾区生活20年，为何很多人越努力越存不下钱？揭秘硅谷光鲜背后的隐形账单
湾区生活成本真相与资产配置策略。
硅谷房地产的"第四次革命"：AI新贵正掀起"暴富神话"，湾区豪宅仅需22天就完成交易！
AI 新贵对湾区豪宅市场流动性的深层影响。
房价跌20万，中产不敢买，富人反而越买越多？最新湾区房价真相曝光！
不同人群的逆周期购买行为观察。
Methodology
How these reports are built
Each city report focuses on single-family residential transactions. Median sold price, days on market, and sale-to-list ratio use trailing 90-day windows; year-over-year figures compare the same trailing window to the prior year. Inventory (months of supply) is calculated as active listings divided by average monthly closed sales over the prior six months.
Primary sources: Zillow Research ZHVI (city and ZIP level, monthly), Redfin Data Center (SFR filter, 30-day rolling DOM and inventory), Realtor.com Research (ZIP-level snapshot). Data is re-aggregated weekly via automated pipeline. Medians are not mix-adjusted — compare across periods with that caveat in mind.
All figures are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. City-level data in high-priced, low-volume markets (Atherton, Los Altos Hills) should be interpreted with caution — a single transaction can move headline statistics meaningfully.
FAQ
Common questions
Q: Is the Bay Area currently a buyer's or seller's market?
As of Q1 2026, the Bay Area remains firmly a seller's market. Core-city inventory sits at 55% of 2019 levels, median DOM is under 22 days across our seven cities, and more than 62% of listings receive offers within the first week.
Q: Will Bay Area home prices fall in 2026?
The core-Bay-Area price index has risen roughly 25% since Q1 2024. With low inventory, strong tech employment, and cross-border capital all active, a broad price decline is unlikely. Hillsborough has seen modest softening at the top of its range — individual city dynamics vary.
Q: Which city has appreciated fastest?
Over the trailing 12 months, Los Altos (+11.0%) leads the seven cities, driven by top-tier school districts and constrained single-family supply. Palo Alto (+5.4%) and Cupertino (+5.9%) follow.
Q: What is a normal days-on-market figure for these markets?
Our seven cities range from 18 (Los Altos) to 48 days (Atherton, where thin volume inflates the stat). A DOM below 20 signals competitive bidding; above 35 often indicates pricing above market or demand softness.
Q: What does a sale-to-list ratio above 100% mean?
The home sold above its asking price — a bidding war occurred. Most of our seven cities currently show ratios of 101%–106%, meaning accepted offers average 1%–6% over list price.
Q: What is the difference between Peninsula and Silicon Valley pricing?
The Peninsula (San Mateo County) median SFR price runs roughly $800K above Santa Clara County. The gap reflects land scarcity, older-money estate stock in Atherton and Hillsborough, and school-district premiums in Palo Alto and Menlo Park.
Data Sources
This page aggregates publicly available data from the sources below. Single-family residential median sold price is the primary metric. Figures may differ from individual source publications due to differences in time windows and methodology. All data for informational purposes only; not investment advice.
Data as of March 2026 | Authors: Kevin Mo, Marie Wang | © MK Group Real Estate | Keller Williams
Want a custom market analysis for your target city?
Marie and Kevin deliver tailored reports within 48 hours. DRE# 02110980 / 02127623 · Keller Williams